January 5, 2008

Brief Thoughts on the Iowa Caucases

Just got off the phone with an old friend, Cathy Schuster, liberal Dem from way back who spent some years in Iowa and therefore is aware of the usually unappreciated progressive chemistry of Iowa Dems where a kind of labor-farm alliance has held strong. The state is also the home of one of the most liberal of the liberal arts colleges in the nation, Grinnell College, from which one of my daughters graduated now - can it be? - nine years ago.

No doubt, Iowa was a blow to Hillary Clinton's presidential aspirations and it was heartening for the `anyone-but-hillary Dem ' elements within the party to see Obama win and Edwards come in second pushing Hillary into a humiliating (but not humiliating enough) third place. It probably makes the Republicans a little nervous as she is, easily their favorite choice of a Democratic presidential hopeful because they think her beatable and have collected more dirt on her over the past 20 years than they have on Edwards or Obama.

From another perspective, of course, it gives hope for change and for that alone the nation - and the world (that is watching unable to participate but which will be affected by the outcome) - should take heart. If Hillary is smart - and by the way, in case you have forgotten - she is, very much so - she'll reshape `her message' to address the Obama and Edwards supporters she's going to run into time and again in the months ahead.

Obama's campaign struck a chord among young people and minorites. With Oprah's help he also cut into Hillary's base among women to a certain extent. Edwards more and more, is speaking for working and middle class Americans. His campaign has captured their decades of anger and frustration with mainstream (read - Democratic Leadership Conference DLC) Democratic Party leadership that has kicked them around for the past twenty years or so. If Oprah used her magic to open doors for Obama, literally thousands of trade unionists from all over the country converged on Iowa - several thousand from the United Steelworkers of America alone - to boost Edwards' campaign.

Hillary has tried - as is well known - to package her considerable political experience and paint Obama as a young inexperienced upstart. She'd like to simply ignore Edwards as if his campaign didn't exist. She'll have trouble doing this in the aftermath of Iowa. As for her experience, it is of course genuine, but Obama and Edwards can turn that asset into a liability without much effort by simply arguing that she brings along with her a great deal of political baggage - both hers and that of the great Cuban cigar juggler, her husband, Billie Boy. She seems to be following the DLC script, the same one that morphed two probable Democratic presidential victories into defeats.

Hillary's main problem is that she has raised too much money and as much as any candidate in the running is beholden to a broad array of special interests from whose grip she will escape only with great difficulty - even if she wanted to. They include the telecommunications industry, pharmaceutical and insurance companies, military contractors and Israel's overzealous supporters within the party. She just can't run away from the more than one hundred million dollars they've invested in her.

Coloradoans For Hillary

She's got some powerful local players in her corner too - Diana De Gette, Wellington Webb, Ken Gordon, Dottie Lamm, Jim Lyons, Paula Sandoval, Andrew Romanoff, Pat Schroeder, some of the boys and girls from Norm Brownstein of Brownstein, Farber, Hyatt and Schreck- so much so that it is fair to say that in August 2008, Denver will be more or less Hillary friendly territory - at least in the convention hall. Hedging his bets as usual, early on, Brownstein contributed not only to Clinton but to Richardson and Christ Dodd as well.

Early on (April 2007), Webb and Brownstein were among Clinton's most generous contributors. The name of US Senator Ken Salazar (D-CO), whose fortunes have never been too far removed from Brownstein and Farber influence has been floated as a possible vice presidential running mate for Clinton

With her enormous war chest and husband Bill - one of the most sophisticated political strategists in modern times (this doesn't mean I agree with him or even supported him as a president - I didn't) behind her and considerable support garnered through 2-3 years of backroom deals and hard bargaining - Hillary is, in my book, still very much the front runner. This won't change either regardless of the New Hampshire results a few days from now.

For Obama and Edwards it's still very much of an uphill battle, perhaps not of Sisyphean proportions anymore but still no easy going. The set back Hillary suffered in Iowa is not yet much more than a pin prick. To think she's either down or out is little more than wishful thinking.

How all this would play out in terms of a change in US policy towards Iran, a speedy withdrawal from Iraq and a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue based on more serious principles and fairer negotiating strategy than that developed recently at Annapolis remains to be seen. Expect the least in all this from Hillary. That Obama or Edwards might approach these issues in a more principled manner is open to question.